National Poll Shows Substantial Increase In Pro-Life Attitudes

By Dave Andrusko

A multi-part series that ran in the Buffalo News in late Novem-ber not only handled abortion in a thoughtful, even-handed manner, but also provided one of the most thorough, encouraging portraits of public opinion in years.

On virtually every dimension, the story, written by Jerry Zremski, illustrates how the public is continuing to move in a pro-life direction. Nowhere is this more true than with young people.

The story's headline--"Attitude becomes more negative on abortion"--is accurate but is like saying the presidency became more pro-life when George W. Bush replaced Bill Clinton: true but highly understated. Nonetheless, the opening sentence does a good job of setting the table:

"More than one-fifth of Americans surveyed say they're less in favor of abortion today than they were a decade ago--and that's nearly twice the number who say they've become more pro-choice." How does the paper know this?

The Buffalo News used Zogby International, a well-known polling firm, to conduct a poll of a little over 1,000 people nationwide, and another 800 in Erie and Niagara counties [New York], from November 12 to 14. What Zogby found is that almost exactly one-third (32.8%) of all respondents said their feelings had changed in the past 10 years. Those who were less in favor of abortion outnumbered those more in favor of abortion by an almost 2-1 margin: 21% to 11.3%. Perhaps more significant is that only 5.4% said they were "much more" in favor of abortion than they were a decade ago compared to 14.5% who were "much less" in favor of abortion. As always the intensity factor redounds to the benefit of unborn babies.

The responses of young people are surprising only to those who haven't been keeping track. Asked "By law, in which one of the following circumstances should abortion be permitted," 21.9% of 18-to 29-year-olds said "always." But a whopping 33.2% of this same age group said "never."

Another 30.1% would tolerate abortion only in instances of rape, incest, or when the mother's life is endangered. Combined, that is almost two-thirds--63.3%. Those numbers apply to the 18-to 29-year-old category.

The numbers are also encouraging if you look at the entire sample: 56.8% said abortion should never be permitted or only in cases of rape, incest, or when the mother's life is endangered.

One of the most revealing results from the survey is what people would say to those close to them who are contemplating an abortion. "If a relative or close friend told you she was pregnant," respondents were asked, "and wanted to get an abortion which of the following statements best expresses your reaction?" More than two-thirds (67.4%) said either "tell her abortion is wrong" (32.7%) or advise against her decision (34.7%).

While the wording in the poll proper is not entirely clear, it would appear that only 19.1% would advise her to go ahead "if she thinks it is right." That is a 3-1/2 to 1 pro-life response.

With the outstanding results experienced by pro-lifers November 5, it's interesting to read what the Buffalo News found about how abortion affects voting behavior. To make sense of the curiously understated interpretation, you have to understand the roundabout way the issue is broached in the story.

Zremski begins by quoting NARAL President Kate Michelman. Trying to put the best spin on the results, Michelman said, "People have personal ambivalence about abortion; they have conflicted views."

Zremski seems to agree with Michelman's characterization--that the poll deals with "personal matters" and does not reflect "the fact that more Americans label themselves pro-choice than pro-life." What neither of them observe--in a story about the growth of more "negative" views about abortion--is that ever more people describe themselves as "pro-life."

Indeed, depending on the poll and the way the question is asked, there are essentially as many people who describe themselves as pro-life as "pro-choice." This near parity comes in spite of near monolithic media hostility for much of the past three decades.

But Michelman also "admitted that on a personal level, those labels sometimes don't fit. 'We see some people with pro-choice views mixed with anti-choice views,' she said." Her quote is surely true, but why is opposition to abortion supposedly more on a "personal level" than a "political level"?

Because, we're told (as mentioned above), that while nearly two-thirds said that "if someone close to them were considering an abortion they'd advise against it, only 38.7 percent of respondents locally said their feelings against abortion affect the way they vote" [emphasis added]. But that's nearly four out of ten people.

And if you actually look at the poll data you discover that 13.1% say they will vote for pro-life candidates to only 4.1% who'll vote for "pro-choice" candidates--a gigantic nine point pro-life increment. But there's more.

What about what might be called predispositions? Another 27.3% said they "favor pro-life" candidates but "consider other issues." That compares with just 19.1% who responded that they favor "pro-choice" candidates but consider other issues. Only 26.6%--barely one-quarter--said that "abortion makes no difference to my vote."

In other words, abortion, at a minimum, shapes the voting behavior of a huge number of people, when it does not actually determine it. The news runs the gamut from good to better to best.

Please see the editorial on page two for a further look at the 10-part Buffalo News series.