By Randall K. O'Bannon
NRL-ETF Director of Research
In Public Opinion about Abortion, a small but valuable book
that reviews nearly 25 years of abortion polling in America, authors Karlyn
Bowman and Everrett Ladd declared, "Public opinion on abortion has
been remarkably stable over the past quarter century."
Published in 1997, the book may have been compiled a few months early, since
more recent polls not included in the study show some slight but significant
movement favoring the pro-life side. In no small measure that upswing is
a result of the enormously significant debate over partial-birth abortion.
Movement in the Pro-Life Direction
For years, one could ask the same questions
and pretty much expect the same answers. Is abortion murder? In different
polls from 1989 up to 1995, about 40%-43% said "yes," while about
47%-51% said "no."
By contrast, people were also asked, Should abortion be legal in all circumstances,
only some, or not at all? Gallup polls taken from April 1990 up to September
1995 consistently showed over 30% saying that they believed abortion should
be "legal under any circumstances." During roughly the same time
period, from 1989 up to January 1995, according to a series of polls done
for CBS News and the New York Times, there were never more
than 60% willing to impose any limits on abortion.
However, recent polls by both groups show these numbers changing significantly.
Since October 1995, the CBS News/New York Times poll, with one exception,
has consistently shown over 60% majorities
wanting "stricter limits" on abortion or wanting abortion not
to be permitted at all. In its most recent poll from January 1998, 45% wanted
stricter limits on abortion while 22% believed it should not be permitted
at all - - a total of 67%, the highest figure shown since CBS News
and the NY Times began asking this question in 1989.
The Gallup organization, which has tracked this issue even longer, shows
fewer people ready to accept the current policy of abortion on demand today
than at any time since the 1970s, when abortion was just beginning to become
a part of the national experience. In its most recent poll published in
USA Today (1/22/98), only 23% were willing to endorse the idea that
abortion should be legal under any circumstances. A total of 75% said either
that abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances (58%) or
illegal in all circumstances (17%).
What people mean when they say that abortion should be legal "only
under certain circumstances" is significant. Gallup has not released
any further data on its latest poll, but in an August 1997 poll asking the
same basic questions, it asked those giving this response to specify whether
they thought that abortion "should be legal under most circumstances"
or "only in a few circumstances." Of the 61% in the August 1997
poll who originally said that abortion should be legal "only under
certain circumstances," four out of five believed that abortion should
be legal "only in a few circumstances." Therefore, that 61% then
breaks down to just 12% who would allow abortion under "most circumstances"
and 48% who would allow abortion only in a "few circumstances"
(rounding keeps the numbers from adding up precisely). Thus, a total of
63% would either make abortion illegal in all circumstances (15%) or allow
it only in a few circumstances (48%)! In the August 1997 poll, those who
favor abortion on demand, the 22% who felt abortion should be legal "under
any circumstances," together with those who would allow it for "most
circumstances" (12%) total only 34%.
More people consider abortion to be murder. Whereas only 40% of those responding
to the CBS/NY Times poll had considered
abortion "the same thing as murdering a child" in July 1989, fully
half saw it as murder in January 1998. In 1989 47% said abortion was not
murder "because the fetus really isn't a "child" but by 1998
that number had dropped all the way to 38%.
The reason for these shifts is not hard to fathom. Before the Supreme Court
abruptly overturned the abortion laws of all 50 states in Roe v. Wade
in 1973, there was a general presumption in favor of life in the United
States. Polls taken in the 1970s confirm this. According to surveys conducted
by the University of Michigan for the National Election Studies, a total
of 57% in 1972 believed abortion should either "never be permitted"
(11%) or allowed "only if the life and health of the woman is in danger"
(46%). Seventeen percent thought, "Abortion should be permitted, if
due to personal reasons, the woman would have difficulty in caring for the
child," and 27% said, "Abortion should never be forbidden, since
one should not require a woman to have a child she doesn't want."
The University of Michigan conducted two polls in 1980. In the first, it
asked the same questions as they did in the 1972 poll, obtaining similar
results: 10% saying abortion should never be permitted, 44% saying permitted
only if the life or health of the woman is in danger, 18% willing to permit
abortion in cases of "personal difficulty," and 27% saying abortion
should never be forbidden. A shift of about three or four points from the
pro-life to the pro-abortion side, but still probably within the margin
of error.
But in the second 1980 poll, the University of Michigan changed the wording,
prefacing each question by referring to the law and dramatically rewriting
the last option to cast abortion as a matter of "personal choice."
The shift in opinion between the two polls is astounding.
In the second poll, while 11% still said, "By law, abortion should
never be permitted," only 32% said, "The law should permit abortion
only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger"
- - a total of only 43% leaning toward a pro-life position. [Remember that
in 1972, 57% would have permitted abortion only for the mother's life or
health or not at all.]
Eighteen percent said "The law should permit abortion for reasons other
than rape, incest, or danger to the woman's life, but only after the need
for abortion has been clearly established," while 35% in this poll
agreed that "By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion
as a matter of personal choice" (emphasis added). Overnight,
the terms of the debate were changed by the wording of the questions.
That rhetoric held sway for some time. America was repeatedly presented
with abortion as an issue of women's personal freedom. Yet polls now indicate
that Americans finally seem to be reexamining the facts and their views
and becoming more pro-life again.
Why? What is responsible for this change in public opinion? Looking at the
time frame surrounding this transformation (1995 and 1996), one is drawn
to the inescapable conclusion that NRLC's campaign to stop partial- birth
abortions must have had something - - probably a great deal - - to do with
it.
That campaign, begun in June 1995, made many people consider something that
the media had let them ignore: the humanity of the unborn child. If the
fetus was a "blob of tissue," why were there pictures of fully
formed arms and legs and bodies and how could there be any talk of suctioning
out the baby's brains?
This, coupled with the widespread use of technology such as ultrasound and
fetal heartbeat stethoscopes and the distribution of millions of pieces
of pro-life literature, helped to confirm for many not only the humanity
of the child, but also the fundamental immorality of abortion.
That result showed up not only in the polls, but in the declining number
of abortions annually performed in the United States (see NRL News,
12/9/97, or contact the NRL Educational Trust Fund and ask for the Abortion
Statistics factsheet). Researchers who track abortion statistics have specifically
mentioned "changes in attitude concerning abortion" as one of
the possible factors behind that decline.
Phony Polls
There are, of course, still those polls out
there that tell us that Americans support abortion "rights." But
upon closer inspection there are serious problems with the factual assumptions
of these surveys. The most famous example is polls that supposedly show
support for the Supreme Court's 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade.
A January 1998 Louis Harris and Associates poll declared that a majority
of Americans (57%) supported the Supreme Court's decision in Roe.
But Harris, like several others who asked this question, radically mischaracterized
the Court's decision by talking about it as applying only to the first three
months of pregnancy (the Court's decisions in Roe and the companion
case Doe v. Bolton legalized abortion for all nine months of pregnancy
for virtually any reason).
An Associated Press (AP) poll appearing in the January 20, 1998,
edition of the New York Times made the same fundamental error. Respondents
were told that "The Supreme Court ruled in 1973 that a woman can have
an abortion if she wants one at any time during the first three months
of pregnancy" (emphasis added) and asked if they favored or opposed
that ruling. The AP's numbers supporting Roe were actually
lower than Harris's, with only 47% favoring it versus 43% who said they
were opposed.
One reason the Harris poll may have gotten a higher percentage of people
saying they supported Roe was that it also put the Court's decision
in terms of allowing the abortion decision (in the first three months) to
be made by "the woman and her doctor" (emphasis added).
This invariably adds the authority and prestige of the medical profession
to the abortion decision and gives a subtle, but false, implication that
the abortion may be medically warranted. Invoking medical authority obviously
skews the data.
The More Specific You Are,
The More Pro-Life The Answers Are
The way in which those promoting abortion have
always been able to get the numbers to "support" their position
is by being vague and misleading and trying to keep the debate at the level
of sloganeering. That's why so many polls claim that more Americans are
"pro-choice" than pro-life. Even those numbers are starting to
crumble, though.
In the latest CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll (January 22, 1998),
only 48% of those polled called themselves "pro-choice," while
a full 45% identified themselves as "pro-life." This represents
a significant turnaround from September 1995, when the same poll found 56%
describing themselves as "pro-choice" and just 33% "pro-life."
However, when asked the specific circumstances under which they think abortion
should be allowed and the specific legislation they would support, Americans
again demonstrated that they are not supportive of the current practice
of abortion on demand. In fact, a majority opposes the overwhelming majority
of the abortions that are performed. Recent polls show that while large
majorities continue to support abortion for cases of rape, incest, or the
life of the mother (which statistics have shown comprise, at very most,
no more than 3% to 7% of all abortions), they are much less supportive of
abortion in other circumstances.
Asked if they think abortion should be legal in the case where "a woman
does not want the baby," 56% of those responding to the AP's
January 1998 poll said "no." Only 36% were willing to say "yes."
While just 50% in a 1989 NY Times/CBS News poll said abortion was
not alright if a woman did not want to marry the baby's father, by 1998
the number opposing abortion for that reason had climbed to 62%. In that
same 1998 poll, a clear majority, 54%, said abortion should not be allowed
"if the family has a very low income and cannot afford any more children."
Only a plurality, 49%, said so in 1989. Only 25% supported abortion if having
the baby would interrupt the woman's career.
When asked whether they would endorse abortion "after fetal brainwaves
are detected" (the sixth week of the baby's life) or "after the
fetal heartbeat is begun" (approximately three weeks), 61% and 58%,
respectively, told Wirthlin pollsters in the Family Research Council's 1998
poll that "abortion should not be permitted."
Support for Pro-Life Legislation Strong
The real test is what sort of pro-life legislation
they are willing to support.
In the 1998 CBS News/NY Times poll, 79% indicated they favored 24-hour
"waiting periods" for women considering abortion. This would give
women the opportunity to reflect on their decisions and consider alternatives.
The same poll found 56% in favor of viability testing, "requiring a
test to make sure the fetus is not developed enough to live outside the
womb before the woman could have an abortion."
Substantial majorities continue to favor parental involvement legislation.
In the article on 1998 poll, the NY Times declared that "nearly
80 percent" supported parental consent measures, a figure which has
remained steady for several years.
Gallup polls done for CNN and USA Today in 1996 came to similar
conclusions. According to Gallup, 74% in 1996 were in favor of waiting periods;
86% favored a law requiring doctors to inform patients of alternatives to
abortion (part of so-called "right to know" legislation); 74%
favored a law requiring women under 18 to get parental consent; and 70%
favored spousal notification measures.
Various polls put opposition to a constitutional amendment to make all abortions
illegal at 76% (NY Times, 1998), 68% (Harris, 1989), and 64% (Yankelovich,
1996).
However, a January 21, 1998, poll by the National Conference of Catholic
Bishops found that Americans would actually be willing to prohibit most
abortions, with 53% saying either that abortion should not be allowed at
all or allowed only in cases of rape, incest, or endangerment to the mother's
life. The January 1988 FRC poll found 57% taking this position.
And as early as 1990 57% said in a Tarrance poll that they would support
legislation "to prevent abortion as a method of birth control."
Such legislation would outlaw approximately 90% of the abortions performed
today.
Support for a partial-birth abortion ban is particularly strong. While a
majority in the 1998 CBS News/NY Times poll said they had heard nothing
or not much about the partial-birth abortion debates (and whose fault is
that?), 73% thought these abortions should be illegal.
Are Pro-Lifers Just a Bunch of Grumpy Old Men?
There are still enormous myths about pro-lifers.
For years, the pro-life movement has been portrayed as a bunch of old men
trying to tell women what to do, but recent polls show that, if anything,
women are more pro-life than are men.
The January 16, 1998, New York Times article releasing the results
of its latest survey stated quite directly, "Neither age nor a person's
sex appeared to have an effect on people's current views on abortion."
The AP's January 20, 1998, account of its own poll offered a similar
observation, saying, "Race and gender were not significant factors
in determining opinion about abortion."
If there is a "gender gap," polls show that it is women, not men,
who are more likely to oppose abortion! In the 1998 Wirthlin poll conducted
for the Family Research Council (FRC), women consistently expressed a more
pro-life position (61% willing either to prohibit abortion in all circumstances,
to allow abortion only to save the life of the mother, or to allow abortion
only in cases of rape, incest, or the life of the mother) than did men (53%
expressing a pro-abortion position). While middle-aged women were slightly
more pro-abortion than those under 34 or over 55, in all age cohorts, women
were more pro-life than men. The 1998 poll by the Catholic bishops found
the same thing, with more women (58%) than men (50%) willing to outlaw most
abortions.
According to the FRC poll, men are also more likely to think
abortion improves male/female relationships, while the majority of women
disagree.
Younger people, whose generation has taken such a hit from 25 years of abortion
on demand, are increasingly likely to be pro-life as well. While those with
higher incomes and high levels of education are typically more likely to
support abortion, yearly nationwide surveys of college freshman done by
researchers from UCLA have shown a decidedly pro-life trend, with just 54%
currently supporting abortion, declining for the fifth year in a row, from
a high of 65% in 1990. This is encouraging, given that the universities
are one of the abortion industry's prime foci.
The most pro-life region of the country was the South, with 63% of those
reporting a pro-life position.
It is often thrown in the face of pro-lifers that Protestants and Catholics
are just as likely to support abortion or to have abortions as the rest
of Americans. A November 5, 1996, Los Angeles Times poll offered
an important qualification. While 48% of Protestants, 46% of Catholics,
and 41% of "other Christians" in the poll said that abortion should
not be made illegal, those numbers were quite different when frequency of
church attendance was factored in.
Support for unrestricted abortion among those who attended church regularly
was only 34% for Protestants, 27% for Catholics, and 22% for other Christians.
Room for Improvement
While 50% in the latest CBS News/NY Times
poll were willing to call abortion murder, 58% were still saying, "Abortion
is sometimes the best course in a bad situation." However, that 58%
undoubtedly includes many respondents who would allow abortion only in cases
such as life of mother, rape, or incest.
There is work to be done. But there is reason to be hopeful.
Despite 25 years of abortion and heavy promotion of it by advocates and
their allies in the media and politics, the American public is increasingly
uncomfortable with the status quo of abortion on demand.
In the 1998 CBS News/NY Times poll, among those offering a reason
why they thought most women have abortions, 49% said that that reason was
not serious enough to justify an abortion (up from 41% in 1989). Forty-eight
percent of those in the same poll said that it was too easy to get an abortion
(versus only 10% that said it was too hard to get one).
Asked in that poll whether they thought of abortion as more of an issue
involving a woman's ability to control her body or an issue involving the
life of the fetus, 45% said the life of the fetus and 44% said control of
a woman's body.
The fact that abortion is not just a bad thing for babies, but a bad thing
for their mothers, has begun to take on the status of accepted wisdom. According
to the FRC 1998 survey, a full 78% of Americans agreed that women who have
abortions experience emotional trauma, such as grief and regret. Younger
women, those under 34, are especially more likely to agree.
Abortion is no longer assumed to offer any real benefit to women. Most adults
(53%) said they believe that abortion has hindered, rather than improved,
male/female relationships by making it easier for men to avoid responsibility
for pregnancy. Women (58%) were much more likely to say this than men (48%).
Seventy percent of Americans said they do not believe that legalized
abortion is necessary for women to pursue various educational and career
goals.
There is a long way to go, but the tide is turning. The truth, slowly but
surely, is coming out. Every abortion takes the life of an unborn child
whose heart has begun to beat. Abortion is not a solution to a woman's problems.
There is a better way.