An analysis of eight USA Today/CNN/Gallup polls... shows a significant
drop8 percentage pointsin the number of people who say they support legal
abortion under any circumstances.
The shift, seen in four polls since July 1996, coincides with the political
debate over what opponents call "partial-birth" abortion, which
is used in the last six months of pregnancy.
A majority ... in the most recent poll ... taken Jan. 16-18 still
supports legal abortion: 23% in all circumstances. 58% in some
situations. ... 17% illegal in all circumstances....
Abortion-rights supporters say the issue has put them on the defensive....
[T]he greatest shifts are among: Democratic women, 40% supported abortion
under any circumstances in 1994-95, compared to 26% in 1996-98. Liberals,
52% to 37%. Liberal-moderate Republican women, 40% to 25%.
USA Today, Jan. 21, 1998
NRLC's campaign to ban partial-birth abortions has had a profound
impact. Several things have happened.
SUPPORT FOR ABORTION HAS DROPPED
In June 1995, Congressman Charles Canady (R-Fl.)
introduced the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban Act (PBABA). In order to assess
how much our PBABA initiative has changed public opinion, we should make
comparisons with polls before that time.
The numbers for the categories "legal under any circumstances/ legal
in some situations/illegal under all circumstances" in a February 1995
USA Today/CNN/ Gallup poll were: 33%/50%/15%.
After Congress debated and passed the PBABA and Bill Clinton vetoed
it, the poll numbers in July 1996 were: 22% (always legal), 58% (legal in
some situations), and 15% (always illegal) - - similar to the current numbers
(Jan. 1998).
The most dramatic shift was in the "always legal" category: from
33% to 22%. It's hard to support the indefensible.
Of the 58% responding "legal in some situations" in July 1996,
only 23% meant "most," while 73% specified "in few situations."
That means that 42% (73% of 58%) of the total sample favored abortion being
illegal in most situations. Together with the 15% wanting to make
abortion illegal in all circumstances, this means that by July
1996, 57% of the public wanted to restrict abortion to only a few situations
or outlaw it in all circumstances. This is in line with long-term trends.
Hence we can expect similar sentiments to be present today.
Note that the institutional media tend to lump the "always" and
"sometimes legal" categories into one big "supports legal
abortion" group, even though those in the large "sometimes legal"
group tend to accept abortion in only a "few" cases.
The main point here is that electing a pro-life Congress and promoting
well-designed federal legislation made it
possible to breach the media fog and get the truth about partial-birth abortion
before the public. Shown on the floors of the House and Senate, the
drawings of the partial-birth abortion procedure could no longer be suppressed
by the media. This was just too newsworthy to be ignored - - and very effective
for our cause.
THE ABORTION LOBBY'S CREDIBILITY IS DAMAGED
By making pro-abortionists defend the indefensible
we also unmasked their habit of misinforming legislators, journalists, and
the public. Although the general public may still be unaware of how much
it has been the victim of pro-abortion misinformation, most members of Congress
now realize that the pro-abortion lobby was spreading misinformation - -
as in the past. The dishonesty backfired.
Even journalists favorably disposed towards "abortion rights"
found out that they had been fed lies by pro-abortionists. Now that an increasing
number of journalists realize that we have told the truth all along, many
are much more willing to listen to NRLC. This is one reason why NRLC's stock
with journalists has gone up. The other reason is that journalists have
discovered that Congress respects NRLC and its activist grassroots constituency.
The crucial lesson for pro-lifers is that journalists may pick and choose
what and how they report - - but they want their sources to be truthful.
We can earn their trusteven when they are "pro-choice" - - by
giving them only verifiable facts and reliable information. After all,
our goal is to get the truth out.
ABORTION'S CORE CONSTITUENCY IS SHRINKING
While support for abortion in all circumstances
has declined in general since 1994-95, the Jan. 1998 USA Today poll,
quoted in the introduction, shows that such support has dropped most dramatically
in abortion's core constituencies. Support for unrestricted abortion on
demand among "liberals" has slid from 52% to 37%. Among "Democratic
women" and "liberal-moderate Republican women" it dropped
from 40% to 26% and 25%, respectively. (For the public as a whole, it declined
from 31% to 23%.)
These are supposed to be the stalwart "choice" groups, dogmatically
for abortion on demand under all circumstances. It appears that being
challenged by us to defend the indefensible has made many "pro-choicers"
a lot less supportive of abortion on demand. And being lied to by the
pro-abortion lobby surely has dampened their enthusiasm even more.
STICK WITH NRLC
This change in public opinion and in the terms
of the abortion debate came about through the partial-birth abortion campaign
that originated with NRLC. This campaign is having considerable success
even though we still have the task of overriding the Clinton veto in order
to end this hideous procedure.
Our success came because we used our resources in the most focused and
politically sophisticated manner possible; we were good stewards of your
sacrificial contribution. This pro-life success is the result of carefully
thought-out strategies. For success to continue, it is paramount that we
all "stay with the program," and that you channel your pro-life
contributions and resources into what has worked up to now. NRL News
will keep you informed on various legislative initiatives and campaigns
that will build on the successes we have had so far.
Stick with NRLC.