Teen abortions show overall long-term decline
Latest CDC Data Show U.S. Abortion Rate Holding Steady
By Randall K. O'Bannon, Ph.D.
NRL-ETF Director of Education and Research

New figures released by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) show a slight increase in the number of abortions performed in the U.S. from 1995 to 1996. Other CDC statistics, however, along with new data on teen pregnancy supplied by the Alan Guttmacher Institute (AGI), give pro-lifers reason to believe that declines seen in the early 1990s may begin again.

According to the December 3, 1998, edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, there were 1,221,585 abortions reported to the CDC for 1996, an increase of less than 1% over the figure reported to the CDC for the year before. This slight increase in abortions is the first reported since 1990, the year both the CDC and the AGI reported their highest totals ever (1,429,577 and 1,608,000, respectively).1

From 1990 to 1995, the number of abortions reported to the CDC had declined by 15%, returning to levels not seen since the late 1970s. With the lone exception of 1995 figures, the number of annual abortions reported for 1996 is still lower than any figure since 1978.

Measured another way, the CDC data show abortion numbers holding relatively steady. The abortion rate, the number of induced abortions per 1,000 women age 15-44, remained the same: 20. According to the CDC, the abortion ratio - - the number of induced abortions per 1,000 live births - - increased slightly from 311 in 1995 to 314 in 1996.

Both the abortion ratio and rate, however, are still lower than they have been in over 20 years. The abortion ratio was 312 in 1976; the abortion rate was 18 in 1975.

A long-range look at other CDC and AGI statistics gives reason for optimism, particularly as they relate to teenagers. In 1972 CDC showed teens (those age 19 or younger) having 32.6% of all abortions. Thankfully, that percentage of abortions has steadily declined over the years.

By 1992, only 20.1% of the abortions reported to the CDC were performed on women in this age bracket. That number has held steady until 1996, when it rose slightly to 20.3%.

Between 1976 and 1974 abortions performed on women ages 20 to 24 represented between 33.2% and 35.5% of all abortions. They, too, have trended downward in the past couple of years. In 1994 the percentage for these women was 33.5% of all abortions. By 1996 the percentage had declined to 31.9%.

The lone age group showing a significant and steady increase in abortions is women over 25. In 1976 they accounted for just 34.6% of all abortions. By 1996 the percentage had jumped to 47.8%.

Data recently released by AGI confirms a declining exercise of the abortion "option" among members of the younger generation. According to figures released in the October 1998 report "U.S. Teenage Pregnancy Statistics," fewer abortions were performed on teens in the United States in 1995 (the last year for which complete statistics were given in the AGI report) than in any year since 1973. According to the AGI report, written by Deputy Director of Research Stanley K. Henshaw, there was a 5% drop in abortions for women under age 20: these women had 274,620 abortions in 1995, 13,910 fewer than in 1994. The figure represents a drop of 186,200 from the peak number in 1979.

Drops in the number of adolescent abortions can be due to factors such as an overall decline in the number of teenagers as well as increased abstinence or contraceptive use, but other statistics provided by the AGI reveal additional elements at play. Data from the AGI on the numbers of teen abortions and overall teen pregnancies (including births, abortions, and estimated miscarriages) show significant declines. Moreover, this decline in recent years is not just in the number of abortions, but in the percentage of pregnant teens choosing to abort their babies.

For example, the percentage of young women, age 19 and under, aborting their babies sharply increased in the years immediately after Roe v. Wade. However, from 1979-1988, the percentage hovered at around 40%. After peaking at 40.4% in 1985, that percentage began to decline, dropping sharply in 1989 and continuing on down to the 1995 figure of 30%. These are more than numbers. If the 1985 percentage had held for 1995, teens would have aborted 95,699 more babies than they did.

Looked at in the light of larger abortion trends, it becomes clear that the decline of abortions among teens has been a major part of the overall decline in the number of abortions annually performed in the U.S. witnessed in the last few years. While the decrease in annual abortions has been seen across the board in all age groups from 1990 to 1996, the CDC data, even when factoring in the recent small increase, shows the drop has been greater among teens.

From 1990 to 1996, CDC data show that while abortions to women 20 years old and older dropped 12.2%, the drop for women age 19 and under was 22.6%!

Several factors may account for this. In the last 10 years, 22 states have passed substantive parental involvement statutes requiring that a minor's mother, father, or guardian be notified or give their consent if their teen seeks an abortion. Effective pro-life legislative and educational campaigns aimed at helping the general public develop a better understanding of the humanity of the unborn child, the risks associated with abortion, and alternatives to abortion have surely contributed to greater teen awareness of and disaffection with the abortion " solution."

Nationwide opinion polls of incoming college freshmen done annually by researchers at UCLA show there has been a modest but steady decline in the number of students willing to support abortion. Though 54% in the fall 1997 survey declared their support for keeping abortion legal (the newspaper report does not specify the wording of the question), this represented the fifth consecutive year support for abortion had declined among incoming freshman and the lowest percentage supporting abortion since the 1979 survey. Sixty-five percent had supported keeping abortion legal as recently as 1990 (Washington Post, 1/12/98).

Women age 19 and under still account for some 20% of all abortions in the U.S., so there is a long way to go before teens are finally free of the clutches of the culture of death. But the numbers seem to tell us that this new generation is more pro- life, not just less likely to get pregnant, but less likely to choose abortion if they do. That's good news for all of us, but especially for the next generation now forming in the womb.

Because the CDC relies on data supplied by state health agencies rather than direct surveys of the abortion clinics, these numbers probably represent an undercount. The survey provided by the AGI, which does contact the clinics, typically shows an additional 160,000 to 180,000 abortions per year.

However, because the CDC's numbers have always roughly parallel those of the AGI, and because the AGI does not conduct its survey every year (the last year for which the AGI published full survey data was 1992), the CDC data are still generally considered valuable in identifying statistical trends.

FOOTNOTE:

1. Because the CDC relies on data supplied by state health agencies rather than direct surveys of the abortion clinics, these numbers probably represent an undercount. The survey provided by the AGI, which does contact the clinics, typically shows an additional 160,000 to 180,000 abortion per year. However, because the CDC's numbers always roughly parallels those of the AGI, and because the AGI does not conduct its survey every year (the last year for which AGI published full survey data was 1992), the CDC data are still generally considered valuable in identifying statistical trends.