By David N. O'Steen, Ph.D., NRLC Executive Director
Despite some disappointments in the recent elections, post-election polling and exit poll data show that pro-life voters and the National Right to Life PAC made a significant difference in the 1998 elections on behalf of pro-life candidates. As in previous elections, the majority of those persons who voted on the basis of the abortion issue voted for pro-life candidates. Contrary to what is usually reported in the media, the abortion issue helped, rather than harmed, pro-life Republican candidates. In both Houses of Congress voters re-elected Republican majorities and pro-life majorities on most current pro-life issues before Congress.
Poll data also found that a majority holds a pro-life position on when abortion should be legal and that majorities favor current pro-life initiatives in Congress.
A national poll of 1,008 voters conducted by Wirthlin Worldwide the evening of November 3 found that 22% of voters said that the abortion issue affected their vote. Fifty-nine percent of those (13% of all voters) said they voted for candidates who oppose abortion, while 41% (9% of all voters) said they voted for candidates who favor abortion. This indicates that the abortion issue provided about a 4% advantage for pro-life candidates.
Most, but not all, Republican candidates for Congress, took pro-life positions, while the great majority of Democratic candidates took pro-abortion positions. Overall, the abortion issue continued to work in favor of Republican candidates and against Democratic candidates.
The Wirthlin poll asked voters whether they had voted for the Republican, against the Democrat, for the Democrat, or against the Republican in their vote for U.S. House and asked them to name the main reason for their vote. Five percent of those who said they voted for the Republican or against the Democrat volunteered abortion as the main reason, while 3% of those who said they voted for the Democrat or against the Republican cited abortion.
Abortion Issue Aided Pro-Life Candidates
In addition, exit poll data from several states showed that the abortion issue aided pro-life candidates. This was true both in cases where the pro-life candidate won and in cases where the pro-lifer could not overcome the pro-abortion candidate's lead based on other issues.
A CNN exit poll in Illinois found that 11% of voters cited abortion as the top issue in their Senate vote. Of these, 55% voted for pro-life Republican Peter Fitzgerald and 41% voted for pro-abortion Democrat Carol Moseley-Braun, whom he defeated.
In Wisconsin, a CNN exit poll found that abortion was the top issue for 20% of voters. An astounding 82% of these voted for pro-life Republican Mark Neumann, while only 17% voted for pro-abortion Democrat Sen. Russ Feingold. This means 16% of all Wisconsin voters voted for Neumann because of his pro-life stance, while only 3% voted for Feingold because of his pro-abortion stance. Thus, Neumann had a 13% advantage on the abortion issue. Unfortunately, those who said they voted on the basis of social security, education, or jobs strongly favored Feingold and provided enough of a margin for him to narrowly retain his Senate seat.
In New York, where pro-life Sen. Al D'Amato(R) was defeated by pro-abortion Congressman Charles Schumer (D), 7% of voters cited abortion as the top issue determining their vote. Of these the majority, 58%, said they voted for D'Amato as compared to 42% for Schumer.
In California, where pro-abortion Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer defeated Republican challenger Matt Fong, who had a mixed stance on abortion, a Los Angeles Times exit poll found that 13% of Boxer's voters and 13% of Fong's voters cited abortion as the reason for their vote. In the governor's race, where pro-abortion Democrat Gray Davis defeated pro-life Republican Dan Lungren, 13% of Lungren's voters cited abortion and 12% of Davis's voters cited abortion.
CNN did not report exit poll results on abortion for Kentucky, where Republican pro-life Congressman Jim Bunning defeated Democratic pro-abortion Congressman Scotty Baesler in one of the most closely contested Senate races in the country. However, Kentucky newspapers reported that Baesler said that radio ads on abortion run by National Right to Life PAC, which compared his position to that of Jim Bunning, "probably...hurt me more than anything else."
"Campaign Finance Reform" a Non-Issue
Baesler had made his support for "campaign finance reform" legislation the centerpiece of his campaign. He actively supported legislation such as the McCain-Feingold and Shays- Meehan bills. Such bills have been strongly opposed by NRLC because they would suppress free speech by pro-life groups about the stands and votes on abortion of members of Congress and candidates. In addition, Baesler authored his own legislation, which would have placed even greater restrictions on free speech than would McCain-Feingold.
Not only did the "campaign reform" issue not work for Baesler, the Wirthlin poll showed that it was of no consequence in the election nationally. When voters were given a list of issues and asked to pick two that were important to them when they voted, only 5% picked "campaign finance reform."
Despite the effort of the Democratic Party in general to use " campaign reform" as an issue, the small number of voters who cited it were almost evenly divided between those who voted for a Democrat for the U.S. House and those who voted for a Republican. Only 2.2% cited this issue and said they voted for a Democrat, while 1.9% cited it and said they voted for a Republican, yielding only a difference of three-tenths of 1%. Similar results were found in the vote for U.S. Senate.
Education, Social Security Aided Democrats
Two issues that did work for the Democrats in general, according to the Wirthlin poll, were education and social security. Thirty- three percent of all voters chose education as one of the top two reasons for their vote. Fifty-nine percent of those (19% of all voters) said they voted for a Democrat for U.S. House, while 32% of those (10% of all voters) said they voted for a Republican.
Thirty percent of voters in the Wirthlin poll chose social security as one of the top two issues determining their vote. Fifty-three percent of those (16% of all voters) said they voted for a Democrat for U.S. House, while 33% (10% of all voters) said they voted for a Republican.
Scandal Did Not Aid Republicans
The scandal surrounding President Clinton and Monica Lewinsky apparently did not work to the advantage of Republicans, according to the Wirthlin poll.
While 10.5% of voters who said they voted for a Republican or against a Democrat for the House volunteered "Clinton" as the reason, 11.7% of those who said they voted for a Democrat or against a Republican for the House named "Clinton" as the reason.
Furthermore, political ads that focused on the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal actually seemed to help the Democrats. The Wirthlin poll showed that 47% had read or heard political advertising focusing on this issue.
Those who saw the ads seemed evenly divided on whether the ads tended to make them vote Republican or Democrat, with 39% saying the ads tended to make them vote Republican and 40% saying they tended to make them vote Democrat. However, 28% (13% of all voters) said the advertising made them "much more likely" to vote Democratic, while 17% (8% of all voters) said it made them "much more likely" to vote Republican.
Pro-Life Position Advantageous for Republicans
Despite ample empirical evidence, such as that cited above, that again showed in 1998 that the abortion issue helped pro-life candidates and Republican candidates in general, and the lack of any hard national evidence to the contrary, much of the media began their inevitable clamor for Republicans to drop their pro-life position the night of the election. However, the Wirthlin poll showed that a change in the party's position would be very harmful for Republicans.
Voters were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote Republican if the Republican Party dropped its "stand that supports protecting the lives of unborn children and opposes both partial-birth abortion and the use of federal funds for abortion." The poll found that 34% would be "less likely" to vote Republican while only 28% would be "more likely." Most significantly, 17% would be "much less likely" to support Republicans if the party dropped its pro-life position while only 9% would be "much more likely" to support Republicans, a potential net loss of 8% for Republicans.
The Pro-Life Majority
The poll found that 51% would prohibit the overwhelming majority of abortions, with 8% saying that abortion should never be legal, 15% saying that abortion should be allowed only to save the life of the mother, and 28% saying abortion should only be allowed to save the life of the mother or in cases of rape or incest.
The poll found that 44% took a pro-abortion position, with 25% saying abortion should be legal for any reason, but not after the first three months; 6% saying abortion should be legal for any reason, but not after the first six months; and 13% would allow abortion for any reason at any time.
Despite media portrayals to the contrary, the poll found that Republicans are more united on the abortion issue than are Democrats. Sixty-four percent of Republicans took one of the more pro-life positions, while 32% took a pro-abortion position. Republican women gave equally pro-life responses, with 65% taking one of the more pro-life positions and 33% taking a pro-abortion position.
Among Democrats, 38% (and 40% of Democratic women) took one of the more pro-life positions while 57% of Democrats (and 56% of Democratic women) took a pro-abortion position.
Among Independents, 51% took one of the more pro-life positions and 43% took a pro-abortion position.
Support for Pro-Life Legislation Strong
A strong majority supports banning partial-birth abortion. After being told that "a partial-birth abortion involves delivering a living, late-term baby feet first, except for the head, puncturing the head with scissors, and suctioning out the brain," 73% believe that Congress should ban partial-birth abortion except to save the life of the mother, 19% said no, and 8% didn't know.
The poll also found that 84% believe that it should not be legal "for non-parents to take minor girls across state lines for secret abortions without the girls' parents' knowledge or consent." Only 12% thought this should be legal and 5% didn't know. This indicates strong support for the Child Custody Protection Act, which would make it a crime to circumvent state parental notification or consent laws by taking minors across state lines for abortion.
When asked if tax dollars should be used to pay for abortion, 75% said no, 23% said yes, and 2% did not know.
Two questions were asked that relate to the very important, upcoming congressional debate on the future of Medicare. When asked if "the law should allow older people to add their own money to government Medicare payments in order to get unrationed health insurance," 61% responded yes, 25% said no, and 14% didn't know. This is currently allowed by law and is strongly supported by NRLC as part of any Medicare restructuring. It is necessary to prevent rationing of lifesaving medical treatment under Medicare. However, it has been opposed by the Clinton Administration and is likely to be a key part of the upcoming debate on the future of Medicare.
On the broader question of rationing, the Wirthlin poll found that 75% disagreed "that we should ration lifesaving medical treatment for older people in poor health with a poor quality of life in order to contain health care costs," 21% agreed, and 4% didn't know. Most significantly, 55% "strongly disagreed" while only 8% "strongly agreed."
A Look Ahead to 2000
In an early test of presidential primary strength, the Wirthlin poll found that pro-life Republican Gov. George W. Bush of Texas led 15 other potential Republican contenders, with the support of 41% of those who said they were likely to vote in a Republican primary. No other contender received more than 13% (see story, page 17).
Pro-abortion Vice President Al Gore led a field of five potential Democratic contenders with the support of 51% of those who said they were likely to vote in a Democratic primary, with the next nearest contender at 11%.
In a head-to-head contest between pro-life George W. Bush and pro-abortion Al Gore, Bush led 52% to 38%.