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The Dangers of
Overconfidence Part Three of Three By Dave Andrusko At a certain juncture, when all the vectors are pointing in your direction, it is important to remind ourselves that it is September 1, not November 1, and in the next eight weeks a great deal can change. This is more important than ever because this morning brought another bumper crop of bad news for the Democratic Party, whose congressional leadership and (overwhelmingly) most members are pro-abortion. I talked on Tuesday about the "generic ballot," a gauge that politicians and analysts use to measure the likelihood that voters will choose one party over the other. Gallup had reported an historic margin for the Republican Party, whose congressional leadership and (overwhelmingly) most members are pro-life. When asked, 51% of registered voters told Gallup they would vote for the GOP candidate in their district, were the election held today, to only 41% for the Democratic candidate. And then there was more from Gallup today. For a long time Democrats have held the advantage when people were asked which party would do a better job handling nine key elections issues. However that margin has not only disappeared, "A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds Americans saying the Republicans in Congress would do a better job than the Democrats in Congress of handling seven of nine key election issues," according to Gallup. "The parties are essentially tied on healthcare, with the environment being the lone Democratic strength." The spread on four of the issues ranged from 11% (the economy) to a whopping 24% (terrorism). Some of the projections for Republican gains border on the absurd. But they get attention and, consequently, can easily depress Democrats and elate Republicans. For example, I was just reading a paper that will be presented this week at a meeting of the American Political Science Association by the chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Buffalo. Prof. James E. Campbell predicts that the Democrats can expect to lose 51 seats in the House of Representatives in the November election, producing a Republican majority. In a nutshell, Campbell argues, "Partisanship, ideology, the midterm decline from the prior presidential surge, the partisanship of districts being defended, and even President Obama's approval ratings have set the stage for significant seat gains by Republicans in the House." All of this changes nothing, unless supporters remember that the only poll that matters is the one that takes place November 2. Overconfidence is the bane of all electoral contests. Please send your comments on Today's News & Views and National Right to Life News Today to daveandrusko@gmail.com. If you like, join those who are following me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/daveha.
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