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Latest Virginia Poll
Demonstrates the Truth of the Adage
"Be Careful What You Wish For"
Part Three of Three
By Dave Andrusko
The single most important
thing to remember with three and a half
weeks to go before voters elect the next
governor of Virginia is that no matter what
polls tell us today, four years ago when
pro-life Republican Bob McDonnell and
pro-abortion Democrat Creigh Deeds went
head-to-head for state Attorney General,
McDonnell won by a mere 360 votes. Thus,
even though McDonnell's lead is now 9% [53%
to 44%], no one is foolish enough to believe
this won't be a highly competitive outcome
come November 3. The
second most important thing to remember is
the old adage, "Be careful what you wish
for." Months and months ago, the Washington
Post decided it was imperative that Deeds
win. The paper has sunk to despicable levels
in an all-out assault on McDonnell, who is
almost prototypically suited to be a
successful candidate in the Commonwealth.
(See below.) Not
that he needed any encouragement from the
Post, but Deeds campaign is comprised of one
attack ad after another. I live in Northern
Virginia--the part of the state where
pro-abortion Democrats have reaped rich
harvests of votes--so I've have seen
variations of the same ad a gazillion times.
"There is now a widespread
perception that Deeds's campaign has taken
on a decidedly negative tone -- 56 percent
of voters say he has been running a negative
campaign," according to a story in this
morning's Post, discussing the poll of 2,091
Virginians. "Six of 10 voters say
McDonnell's effort has been mainly
positive."
As evidence that the
voters have Deeds pegged right, reporters
Rosalind S. Helderman and Jon Cohen
immediately add, "A new ad released by
Deeds's campaign Thursday begins with an
assault on McDonnell's transportation plan
before turning to Deeds's vision."
As one voter perceptive
explained to the Post, "I don't feel like
[Deeds has] run a campaign that gives me a
good idea of where he stands on certain
issues. I feel like he's been so focused on
making McDonnell look bad that he's made
himself look bad."
The following analysis
would be almost amusing, if the stakes
weren't so high.
"McDonnell leads 53 to 44
percent among likely voters, expanding on
the four-point lead he held in
mid-September," Helderman and Cohen write. "Deeds's
advantage with female voters has all but
disappeared, and McDonnell has grown his
already wide margin among independents.
Deeds, a state senator from western
Virginia, is widely seen by voters as
running a negative campaign, a finding that
might indicate that his aggressive efforts
to exploit McDonnell's 20-year-old graduate
thesis are turning voters away."
Guess who has tried
unceasingly to "exploit" McDonnell's
two-decades- old graduate thesis in one
"gotcha" story after another? Rosalind S.
Helderman, the reporter who first "broke"
the story. Let me
offer one more extended quote from the Post
story. "For the first time, a majority of
voters, 51 percent, say McDonnell is 'about
right' ideologically, despite Democrats'
efforts to characterize him as out-of-touch
with mainstream Virginia voters. More now
see Deeds as 'too liberal' than see
McDonnell as 'too conservative' (44 to 37
percent). Moreover, just 15 percent of
voters see the thesis as 'very important' in
deciding how to vote, putting it well behind
jobs, health care, education, taxes and
transportation as a top concern."
To finish where I began,
Deeds does have a history of finishing
strong. And it is true that pro-abortion
Democrats have had run well in recent
state-wide elections in Virginia.
But McDonnell's supporters
are more enthusiastic than Deeds' and
McDonnell is doing very well among
Independents, according to the poll. It is
up to his supporters to maintain that
enthusiasm and focus right through the first
Tuesday in November.
Part One
Part Two |
