By Dave Andrusko

"Polls conducted in 2009 have found fewer Americans expressing support for abortion than in previous years. In Pew Research Center polls in 2007 and 2008, supporters of legal abortion clearly outnumbered opponents; now Americans are evenly divided on the question, and there have been modest increases in the numbers who favor reducing abortions or making them harder to obtain. Less support for abortion is evident among most demographic and political groups The latest Pew Research Center survey also reveals that the abortion debate has receded in importance, especially among liberals. At the same time, opposition to abortion has grown more firm among conservatives, who have become less supportive of finding a middle ground on the issue and more certain of the correctness of their own views on abortion."
     -- From, "Support for Abortion Slips," a report issued today by the Pew Center On Religion & Public Life. (www.pewforum.org/docs/?DocID=441.)

Be forewarned, if you read this report carefully, you have to wade through a lot of language suggesting that this shift is not good. But be that as it may, let's look at a few of the most important and very encouraging results.

#1.The decline in "broad-based support" for abortion continues apace! "Recently, Americans have become more opposed to legal abortion. New analysis of combined Pew Research Center surveys conducted over the past three years shows that in 2007 and 2008, supporters of abortion rights clearly outnumbered opponents of abortion (those saying it should be illegal in most or all cases) by a 54%-40% margin. By contrast, in two major surveys conducted in 2009 among a total sample of more than 5,500 adults, views of abortion are about evenly divided, with 47% expressing support for legal abortion and 44% expressing opposition."

(As we have explained a million times, were the questions more discriminating, the pro-lifer numbers would be even better.)

Ambivalence is creeping in even among "some groups that once clearly preferred keeping abortion legal [who] are now divided over whether it should be legal or not. For instance, Pew Research Center surveys from 2007/2008 found that men, whites, those age 30-49, those with some college education, political independents, observant white mainline Protestants, Catholics and Midwesterners all clearly favored keeping abortion legal in most or all cases. Now, each of these groups is closely divided on the issue."

Maybe the best news is, "Similarly, several groups that were previously divided in their views on abortion now come down clearly on the pro-life side. Among Hispanics, seniors, those with a high school education or less, Southerners and less-observant white evangelicals, abortion opponents now outnumber supporters of abortion rights."

#2. There is a kind of tsk-tsking to the way Pew reports on what might be called the certainty factor. As a whole 73% of pro-lifers are certain (meaning they said they never doubted their position) versus 63% of pro-abortionists.  "Traditionally conservative groups," Pew tells us, "stand out for having become more certain in their views. Conservative Republicans are now 11 percentage points less likely to say they ever wonder about their stance on abortion than they were in 2006, while opinion among other political groups has not changed significantly."

Pew also asked a complementary "respectability" question. (Another neutral conclusion--"Many lack respect for Opposing Views.") Asked if they believe the views of those on the other side are "respectable" or "not respectable," pro-abortionists and pro-lifers generally are about equal in saying that the other viewpoint is "not respectable"--not, by the way, that they "lack respect for opposing views."

#3. The pro-life increment is alive and well. "Those who say abortion should be illegal are much more likely to see abortion as a critical issue (27%), or at least as one important issue among many (40%), with 30% expressing the view that abortion is not an important issue. By contrast, among those who say abortion should be legal, about two-thirds (65%) do not see abortion as an important issue, while only 6% see it as a critical issue." (Emphasis added.)

#4. Support for what Pew calls making it "more difficult for a woman to get an abortion" is the highest since 1987; support for parental consent is very high, "even among those groups whose members are more supportive of abortion rights"; and, more than ever, the public believes it is "good to reduce the number of abortions," a clear signal that there is a deep vein of uneasiness.

Why the shift? "No single reason for the shift in opinions is apparent, but the pattern of changes suggests that the election of a pro-choice Democrat for president may be a contributing factor," the Pew survey concludes.

"Among Republicans, there has been a seven point decline in support for legal abortion and a corresponding six point increase in opposition to abortion. …At the same time, fully half of conservative Republicans (52%)--the political group most opposed to abortion--say they worry Obama will go too far in supporting abortion rights."

Very suggestive is the finding that support for legal abortion among Democrats "is down four points with no corresponding increase in pro-life opinion." Maybe even some Democrats are figuring out that Obama is an extremist on abortion.

Please send your comments and thoughts to daveandrusko@gmail.com.