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What is at Stake?
Part Two of Three By Dave Andrusko I hope you read Part One carefully, particularly about the importance of every single pro-lifer voting. Taking part in the electoral process is a duty and a privilege and can make an enormous difference.
Today will be the last time prior to mid-term elections when I distill some of the enormous piles of data. They are, for the most part, encouraging--but encouraging in the sense, of reminding you that our cause will do well only if pro-lifers are actively involved over the next 30 hours. So, what do we know? Glad you asked. On the ballot or not, Obama and his record are having a huge influence. Summarizing one finding from the most Gallup poll, we learn, "Many are casting protest votes. Thirty-eight percent say they are casting their vote to send a message that they oppose Obama; 24% that they support him.'' That is a remarkable turnabout. Three different polls show solid or--in one case--a massive advantage for Republicans. 55% of likely voters in a USA Today/Gallup Poll say they will vote for Republicans; 40% for Democrats. The GOP advantage was only six percent (49% to 43%), according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. A weekend Pew poll also reveals a 6% GOP advantage (48% to 42%) on the generic ballot. The Gallup poll was huge-- 1,539 likely voters. (Mark Murray is Deputy political director for NBC News. The following quotes are from his story.) "This is a devastating set of data for the incumbent party," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. "It is a rebuke to the last two years." On Election Day, Hart adds, "The Democrats are about to feel the force of hurricane winds." There's no let up in the now-famous "enthusiasm gap." Roughly75% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican report told USA Today/Gallup that they are "absolutely certain" they will vote in the 2010 mid-terms elections. 68 % of Democrats say they are absolutely certain. In other Gallup poll headlined, "Bottom Line," Lydia Saad writes, "Republicans are more engaged in the 2010 midterms than Democrats, a finding evident in Gallup's enthusiasm measure all year and, more recently, in voter turnout measures. Precisely why that is so is another question, perhaps answered in part by the finding that Republicans are more likely to believe the outcome of the elections is highly relevant. In other words, Republicans perceive that more is at stake" (emphasis added). Finally, as we've talked about on many, many occasions, all of these analyses/projections are based on certain bed-rock assumptions. But what if those assumptions are more like clay than solid rock? Nate Silver has played around for months in a fascinating column for the New York Times. Yesterday he wrote a piece entitled, "5 Reasons Republicans Could Do Even Better Than Expected." For our purposes, the most interesting conjecture has to do with how certain voters are screened out of the models based on their voting histories but which may easily miss their enthusiasm in 2010. What if a certain sub-category of "these unlikely voters" has not voted because they been bummed out for years, but now feel their vote can make a real difference in electing their kind of candidate? They could easily go from "unlikely voter" to what one survey calls "uniquely motivated." Silver writes, "If these 'uniquely motivated' Republicans turn out, but Democratic 'unlikely voters' do not, Republican gains could be pretty extraordinary." NRLC is providing you with
the kind of information you need to know where the candidates
stand. Go to For further information about candidates, you can contact your NRLC state affiliate. And please, PLEASE, pass along all these blog entries through your social networks and, if you can, please email me after you've voted. daveandrusko@gmail.com. |
