May 17, 2010

By Dave Andrusko

By now most people who are even marginally attuned to the abortion issue are aware that more people self-identify as "pro-life" than do "pro-choice" and that this represents a real turnaround.

Gallup, which has done a lot of work in the past year on the abortion issue, has concluded that this pro-life self-identification is now the "new normal." According to Gallup's Lydia Saad, the results of a May 3-6, 2010, poll showed "Slightly more Americans call themselves 'pro-life' than 'pro-choice'"-- 47% vs. 45%. This is virtually identical to results from last July (47% to 46%) "following a more strongly pro-life advantage of 51% to 42% last May."

There are many important messages coming out, but let's just talk about three. First, "While the two-percentage-point gap in current abortion views is not significant," Saad writes, "it represents the third consecutive time Gallup has found more Americans taking the pro-life than pro-choice position on this measure since May 2009, suggesting a real change in public opinion. By contrast, in nearly all readings on this question since 1995, and each survey from 2003 to 2008, more Americans called themselves pro-choice than pro-life." (Emphasis added.)

Second, as Gallup has pointed out repeatedly, Republicans increasingly self-identify as pro-life and Democrats pro-abortion, according to two-year averages of results since 2001. Republicans have jumped from 57% self-identified pro-life in 2003-2004 to 68% in 2009-2010. Meanwhile "Democrats' self-identification with the pro-life position has moved in the other direction, declining from 37% in 2003/2004 to 31% in 2009/2010," according to Saad.

Without getting too deep into the statistical weeds, "Republican-leaning independents have become more likely to call themselves pro-life since 2005/2006."

By contrast, "Among independents who lean Democratic, there has been no movement in either direction," Saad writes.

How about Independents who lean to neither party? They "also became more likely to call themselves pro-life' between 2003/2004 and 2005/2006, but have since held steady."

Third, and perhaps most importantly, not only do more men and more women say they are pro-life, "All age groups have become more attached to the pro-life label since 2005, with particularly large increases among young adults and those aged 50 to 64 years in the latest period between 2007/2008 and 2009/2010," Saad writes.

In 2003/04, for example, 40% of 18-29 year olds identified themselves as pro-life. By 2009/10, that figure has jumped to 47%.

When it comes to explanation why "the pro-life label has become increasingly dominant among Republicans and to a lesser degree among independents, while the pro-choice label has become more dominant among Democrats," Saad has only one to offer. "The trends by party identification suggest that increased political polarization may be a factor in Republicans' preference for the 'pro-life' label, particularly since Barack Obama took office."

Absolutely true. Barack has a full-time army of "impartial" reporters trying to explain away the obvious fact that he is a highly polarizing figure. But, of course, there is much more to this shift in opinion that we have written about in this space and National Right to Life News and National Right to Life News Today.

Collectively, they explain why Gallup would find a 23% pro-choice majority in 1995 (56% to 33%) has completely evaporated to be replaced by a pro-life plurality.

Please be sure to send your comments to daveandrusko@gmail.com.

Part One
Part Two