Support for Abortion Drops; Biggest Decline Among Mainline
Protestants
Part Two of Two
By Dave Andrusko
Editor's note. Please send your thoughts and comments to
daveandrusko@gmail.com. They are appreciated.
Research
conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
has shown a decline for support for abortion in most or all
cases from 54% last August to 46% this month. By contrast
opposition to abortion in most or all cases has risen from 41%
to 44.
The news is actually even better, when examined
carefully.
By way of
background, whenever a pollster gives respondents a lengthier
and more specific range of alternatives, there is virtually
always a majority that opposes abortion except to save the life
of the mother and in cases of rape and incest. Blunter
instruments--such as those used by Pew--miss the nuances and
therefore underestimate the public's real opposition to abortion
on demand.
This subtlety is
hinted at in only one statement in the text. "The decline in
support for legal abortion has come entirely in the share saying
abortion should be legal in most cases (from 37% to 28%)." This
is speculation, but what this likely means is that people whose
real support for abortion extends only to very limited instances
returned to expressing their true view.
Pew's poll
reached 1,521 adults between March 31 and April 21. "Currently,
46% say abortion should be legal in most cases (28%) or all
cases (18%); 44% believe that abortion should be illegal in most
(28%) or all cases (16%)," according to Pew. So where were the
changes?
The decrease in
support for abortion is across the board. It is greatest among
men and women over 50 (13% and 8%, respectively) and the age
categories 18-29 and 30-49, where support dropped 5%. Put
another way, only 40% of men over the age of 50 say abortion
should be legal in most or all cases (down from 53% last
summer). Likewise, support for abortion among women over 50
declined from 53% last fall to 45%.
In mid-October
57% of all respondents told Pew they supported abortion in most
or all cases. The 11 percentage point drop (to 46%) cannot be
explained merely by shrinking support among men and women over
50, nor is it the most interesting result.
According to Pew,
"There has been notable decline in the proportion of
independents saying abortion should be legal in most or all
cases; majorities of independents favored legal abortion in
August [55%] and the two October surveys, but just 44% do so
today. In addition, the proportion of moderate and liberal
Republicans saying abortion should be legal declined between
August and late October (from 67% to 57%). In the current survey,
just 43% of moderate and liberal Republicans say abortion should
legal in most or all cases."
What about mainline Protestants, always a problematic group?
Theirs was the biggest decline of all. Last August 69% favored
abortion in most or all cases. By April that figure had dropped
15 percentage points to 54%.
Among those who were labeled "unaffiliated," a whopping 71%
supported abortion in most or all cases, down only one
percentage point.
Part One
