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Behind the Headlines
and the Hit Piece on Pro-Life Gov. Christie
By Dave Andrusko
When a public
official makes an unambiguously pro-life speech, you
know the local media is likely to look for data—real,
imaginary, and everything in between—to tear into him.
So it comes as no
surprise that after pro-life Republican New Jersey
Governor Chris Christie should express solidarity with
the Movement, that a poll would conclude that his
pro-life sentiments had hurt him. Enter a poll, released
today, by the Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for
Public Interest Polling.
But before taking
a look at those numbers, note this from a story in
today’s New Jersey Star-Ledger.
“The poll was the
first time Rutgers had sought New Jersey residents'
opinion on abortion in seven years and found little
change in public opinion in the interim” (emphasis
added). What a coincidence!
Second, after
including quote after quote from David Redlawsk,
director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of
political science at Rutgers, about how “pro-choice” New
Jersey is, what do the numbers tell us? Let me give you
the quote and suggest the numbers tell us three things.
“Only 10 percent
of those polled favor a total ban on abortion. Of those
polled, 37 percent say abortion should be legal with no
restrictions and 50 percent support legalization with
some limits. When polled by Rutgers in 2004, 31 percent
supported legal abortion in all cases, 51 percent in
most cases and only 13 percent supported a total ban on
abortion. ‘Few in New Jersey want to see abortion rights
eliminated entirely,’ said Redlawsk. ‘We did not ask
about the specific limits people support, but there is
clearly little support for a total ban on abortions.’”
#1. Another
convenient fact: they didn’t ask about “specific limits
people support,” such as, say, tax payer funding,
parental notification, or abortion clinic regulation.
Gosh, wonder why.
#2. As summarized
in the story, this year’s wording is different than that
employed in 2004. Legal “with some limits” is different
than legal “in most cases.” Turned out that, in fact,
when you read the poll the wording was the same.
But, guess what
else? When you link to the actual poll, the question is
not “legal with some limits” but “legal only under
certain circumstances,” a much less permissive position.
60% say they want
a total ban on abortion (10%) or “legal only under
certain circumstances” (50%). It is true that there was
a miniscule decrease in the combined total of these two
numbers, but, in fact, the opinions of New Jerseyans are
not that far from the national numbers.
Whereas there was
virtually no difference between Protestants and
Catholics, the more the respondent attended services,
the more pro-life their response. Looking to the future,
among young people 18-29, a total of 63% said abortion
should be 1) be illegal in all circumstances (12%) or
2). legal in only certain circumstances (51%).
#3. Redlawsk wants
to focus on the position that has always had the least
support: a total ban. What a surprise.
Back to what I
strongly suspect what the objective of the poll, how it
“hurt” Christie. People were asked the following:
“Recently Governor
Christie addressed an anti abortion rally expressing his
opposition to abortion. Does his speaking at an
anti-abortion rally make you feel better about Christie,
worse about Christie, or does it have no effect on how
you feel?”
According to “a
weighted subsample of 811 registered voters” who were
interviewed February 24-26, 54% said it has no effect,
31% said it makes them feel worse, and 14% said it makes
them feel better.
So? Redlawsk
conjures up various hurtful scenarios, none of which
pass the test of significance or, for that matter, the
smell test.
At the January 24
rally commemorating the 38th anniversary of Roe v. Wade,
Christie spoke for about five minutes. He told the
audience outside the Statehouse in Trenton that he had
not always been pro-life. That change came when his wife
became pregnant with their daughter, who is now 14..
"It was at that
moment that it became clear to me that being on the
sidelines on that issue was not something that I could
live with," Christie said. "That child is a life which
deserves protection."
Gov. Christie also
said, “What we need to do each and every day is to live
our lives in a way that encourages everyone to
understand why this cause is so important,” adding, ”To
show that we respect the life of every human being, and
that every human being is one of God’s creatures and
deserves the love and respect that God gives to all us.”
You can watch Gov.
Christie’s remarks at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFcv9oX0xGU
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Part Two
Part Three
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