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Will We See a New Narrative After Tuesday's Results?
Editor's note. Please drop me a note at
daveandrusko@hotmail.com
"Still, after a year in which Obama was hailed as the second coming of JFK,
will his Teflon coating now be scratched?"
From "'Soft' Press Sharpens Its Focus on Obama," by Howard Kurtz in
today's Washington Post.
"Senator
Hillary Rodham
Clinton does not look like a candidate who might drop out of the
presidential race as early as Wednesday. … At the same time, Mrs. Clinton
believes there are new whiffs of momentum around her, advisers say."
From "Clinton Campaigns as if Momentum Is Hers" by Patrick Healy in
today's New York Times.
It's by now almost a cliché that the behavior of political reporters is
(in the memorable words of the late Senator Eugene McCarthy)
like blackbirds sitting on a telephone wire. One flies off, they all fly
off, he quipped. One flies back, they all fly back.
The difference 40 years makes is that there are a lot more reporters now
and a lot fewer of them are willing to hide their personal preferences. The
collective swoon for Senator Barack Obama is so obvious that Saturday
Night Live has parodied the love fest two weeks in a row in hilarious
sketches.
So, as we approach tomorrow's Texas and Ohio primaries, today's
convention wisdom is two-sided. Senator Hillary Clinton is (for the
umpteenth time) supposedly just hitting her stride (a) hours away from the
possibility of losing so badly on Tuesday she will withdraw; and (b) just as
the media's infatuation with Senator Obama may be cooling off just a tad. In
other words, probably too little too late.
We do know that Obama--at least so far--is so glib and so vague and so good
at talking out of both sides of his mouth about abortion that he potentially
might be the more dangerous. On the other hand, the Clintons play politics
for keeps. I have no doubt that every judicial nominee would be required to
quote long passages of Roe v. Wade from memory.
In either case, with dead mortal certainty the Democratic presidential
nominee will appoint nominees of the stripe of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg,
as reliably pro-abortion as they come. (On a related note, CNN pundit
Jeffrey Rosen has argued that the Democrats' judicial bench is so thin that
if the Democrats do prevail this November, the new President would not
choose academicians or sitting judges but politicians. More specifically,
Rosen speculates, a President Obama would choose Sen. Clinton and vice
versa.)
I, for one, have not, do not, and will not believe that Senator Clinton will
step aside, even if tomorrow turns out to be a mini-disaster. Democrats
allocate delegates proportionally, rather than winner take all. That is why
Clinton can lose time after time (eleven in a row, to be specific) yet still
being in the hunt.
Keeping her moving on down the road--above and beyond a toughness that is
undeniable and an ambition that is almost palpable--Clinton has probably
concluded that once the media love affair with Obama loses steam the level
of scrutiny will rather quickly change from minus one to plus eight. And I
believe she is absolutely correct.
"Momentum" is THE single most overused descriptor in politics. It often has
the longevity of a snowflake. To be sure Obama has had the winds behind him
for some time. But what happens if his sails develop a couple of tears?
It's my bet that if pro-abortion Sen. Clinton fares "better than expected"
tomorrow against pro-abortion Sen. Obama we will see a new narrative, one
loaded down with hints that "we have a whole new ballgame."
Please drop me any thoughts you have at
daveandrusko@hotmail.com |