Today's News & Views
March 3, 2008
 
Will We See a New Narrative After Tuesday's Results?

Editor's note. Please drop me a note at daveandrusko@hotmail.com

"Still, after a year in which Obama was hailed as the second coming of JFK, will his Teflon coating now be scratched?"
     From "'Soft' Press Sharpens Its Focus on Obama," by Howard Kurtz in today's Washington Post.

"Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton does not look like a candidate who might drop out of the presidential race as early as Wednesday. … At the same time, Mrs. Clinton believes there are new whiffs of momentum around her, advisers say."
     From "Clinton Campaigns as if Momentum Is Hers" by Patrick Healy in today's New York Times.

It's by now almost a cliché that the behavior of political reporters is (in the memorable words of the late Senator Eugene McCarthy) like blackbirds sitting on a telephone wire. One flies off, they all fly off, he quipped. One flies back, they all fly back.

The difference 40 years makes is that there are a lot more reporters now and a lot fewer of them are willing to hide their personal preferences. The collective swoon for Senator Barack Obama is so obvious that Saturday Night Live has parodied the love fest two weeks in a row in hilarious sketches.

So, as we approach tomorrow's Texas and Ohio primaries, today's convention wisdom is two-sided. Senator Hillary Clinton is (for the umpteenth time) supposedly just hitting her stride (a) hours away from the possibility of losing so badly on Tuesday she will withdraw; and (b) just as the media's infatuation with Senator Obama may be cooling off just a tad. In other words, probably too little too late.

We do know that Obama--at least so far--is so glib and so vague and so good at talking out of both sides of his mouth about abortion that he potentially might be the more dangerous. On the other hand, the Clintons play politics for keeps. I have no doubt that every judicial nominee would be required to quote long passages of Roe v. Wade from memory.

In either case, with dead mortal certainty the Democratic presidential nominee will appoint nominees of the stripe of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, as reliably pro-abortion as they come. (On a related note, CNN pundit Jeffrey Rosen has argued that the Democrats' judicial bench is so thin that if the Democrats do prevail this November, the new President would not choose academicians or sitting judges but politicians. More specifically, Rosen speculates, a President Obama would choose Sen. Clinton and vice versa.)

I, for one, have not, do not, and will not believe that Senator Clinton will step aside, even if tomorrow turns out to be a mini-disaster. Democrats allocate delegates proportionally, rather than winner take all. That is why Clinton can lose time after time (eleven in a row, to be specific) yet still being in the hunt.

Keeping her moving on down the road--above and beyond a toughness that is undeniable and an ambition that is almost palpable--Clinton has probably concluded that once the media love affair with Obama loses steam the level of scrutiny will rather quickly change from minus one to plus eight. And I believe she is absolutely correct.

"Momentum" is THE single most overused descriptor in politics. It often has the longevity of a snowflake. To be sure Obama has had the winds behind him for some time. But what happens if his sails develop a couple of tears?

It's my bet that if pro-abortion Sen. Clinton fares "better than expected" tomorrow against pro-abortion Sen. Obama we will see a new narrative, one loaded down with hints that "we have a whole new ballgame."

Please drop me any thoughts you have at daveandrusko@hotmail.com