Part 1
Part 2

Over the weekend, a number of newspapers ran stories about the results of an abortion poll conducted by the Associated Press and Ipsos Public Affairs. Between February 28 and March 2, 1,001 adults were asked a series of questions. Alas, I do not have access to the cross-tabs. Thus, in some respects I will have to offer educated guesses and/or refer to previous polls.

Naturally, the thesis was that while the political landscape has changed (two new Supreme Court justices and passage of a law in South Dakota that would allow abortion only to prevent the death of the mother), public opinion is pretty much frozen in place--"There is no evidence that all this activity is causing Americans to rethink their views." Well, let's see.

"A solid majority long have felt that Roe v. Wade should be upheld," according to one story. "Yet most support at least some restrictions on when abortions can be performed."

And "In this latest poll, 19 percent of Americans said abortion should always be legal, 16 percent said it should never be legal and 6 percent did not have an opinion. That left nearly three-fifths of America somewhere in between."

And finally, "Dicing the same data a different way, 52 percent of those surveyed thought abortion should be legal in most or all cases; 43 percent said it should be illegal most or all of the time."

Before going any further, it is important to note that these results are at variance with other polls. This illustrates (yet again) that the results depend on how you ask the question[s]. Even the slightest differences can make for very different numbers.

For example, in May 2005 Gallup asked respondents four questions. Did they think abortion should be

• Illegal in all circumstances---    22%

• Legal in a few circumstances--40%

• Legal in most circumstances---12%

• Legal in any circumstances-----23%

In other words 62% said abortion should either be illegal in all circumstances or legal in only a few circumstances.

Real quick, let's deconstruct these numbers. First, it is no doubt true that a "solid majority" resists overturning Roe. It is also no doubt true that only a tiny sliver of the public knows that Roe opened the floodgates to essentially abortion on demand, for any reason or no reason. If the public knew the truth, the numbers would be very different.

Second, an honest observer would say, "Hmmm, I guess that's why people support Roe but also support restrictions. They don't know that Roe doesn't allow for 'restrictions.'"

Third, when you actually lay out a range of specific options for people, what you find over and over and over again is that a majority of Americans oppose the reasons for which more than 90% of abortions are performed. Them's the facts; they just aren't well known because most polls don't ask nuanced questions.

Briefly, if you look at a better if still incomplete poll, such as the one taken in mid-January 2005 by (of all newspapers) the pro-abortion Los Angeles Times, you find that 41% favored making abortion illegal with a few exceptions (rape, incest, and to save the mother's life) while another 12% said abortion should be made illegal without any exceptions--a total of 53%. Other polls asking the same questions found even more support.

The other result, mentioned matter-of-factly in weekend stories, was fascinating.  I shall quote it in its entirety.

"STATE VERSUS FEDERAL: People are about evenly split when asked whether the federal government [46%] should decide whether abortion is legal or not, or state governments [43%] should decide, the AP-Ipsos poll found. People with a high school education or less were most likely, 56 percent, to say state government should decide, while those with a college education were most likely, 57 percent, to say the federal government should decide. Those results highlight some public confusion over how abortion laws work, because most people oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court case that legalized abortion."

My guess is that it was a new thought to many people that the states or the federal government "should decide whether abortion is legal or not"--or they thought this was already the case! Push people to think the abortion through and I am convinced that a sizable number would agree the issue belongs in the legislative branches.

Of course, there is "confusion over how abortion laws work." It is only very recently (and in a limited number of outlets) that readers have been told that the abortion issue would return to the states, were Roe overturned. And many, many people erroneously think abortion is only legal in a limited number of situations and only in the first trimester.

Our work remains cut out for us. But the picture grows brighter and brighter.

Please send your comments to Dave Andrusko at dandrusko@nrlc.org.