About Thursday Night…. -- Part One of Two

Editor's note. Please send any comments to daveandrusko@hotmail.com.

I'm still such a creature of the print medium that I have to remind myself constantly that by the time most of you read this edition, you probably will have heard and read tons about what happened in the Iowa caucuses and be on to what may take place in New Hampshire. After a brief summary, I hope what I can add is a different perspective, or at least get beyond the immediate conventional wisdom.

The headline for the piece written by New York Times columnist David Brooks is "The Two Earthquakes." But if part of this is to imply that what happened among the approximately 350,000 Iowans who participated last night came as a surprise, it's simply wrong. Anyone with eyes to see and ears to listen ought to have known that the usual media mewing was way off.

First, the pro-abortion Democratic side. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama crushed former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, using the mantra of "change" as a sledgehammer. Senators Dodd and Biden immediately dropped out.

But if you talked to anyone who lives in Iowa and who followed the candidates, you knew that Obama's campaign was well-oiled and highly motivated. The size of the crowds that he drew foreshadowed his roughly nine percentage point win.

It is virtually impossible to exaggerate the symbolism of an African-American easily winning the Iowa caucus. The question is will there be a second act? Given the level of money and momentum Obama has, clearly the answer is yes, perhaps in New Hampshire next Tuesday and/or in South Carolina later this month.

Given its level of money, campaign experience, and ruthlessness, the Clinton machine will quickly rebound. It's hardly a novel insight, but it's worth articulating: it is going to get awfully unpleasant awfully quick. If you look ahead to the general election, this could prove to be a fatal chink in the armor of whichever pro-abortion Democrat wins the presidential nomination.

On the pro-life side, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee prevailed by about the same margin over former Michigan Gov. Mitt Romney as Obama did over Edwards and Clinton. NRLC-endorsed pro-life former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson came in third, although he was the last candidate to join the Republican field.

Again, if you talked with people in the ground--men and women who live in Iowa and have followed caucus politics for decades-- three weeks ago you knew that Huckabee's victory lap was virtually assured. Probably no candidate has ever more expertly used free media to make up for a paucity of dollars.

It's now on to New Hampshire where the conventional wisdom is that it will be a two-man battle between Sen. John McCain and Romney, as it was Huckabee and Romney in Iowa. Maybe, but maybe not.

After New Hampshire and before February 5 (when so many states will participate it will amount to a mini-national primary), the candidates will duke it out in Michigan [January 15], South Carolina and Nevada [January 19], and Florida [January 29].

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Part Two