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Obama's Numbers, According
to Gallup Part One of Three By Dave Andrusko
I grant you that for the most part only the harder core political junkies care about, let alone study Gallup polls that gauge a President's poll numbers vis a vis contenders 18 months before the next election. But since Presidents and potential contenders DO pour through the numbers looking for clues, it's worth noting that currently President Obama can do no better than tie a generic Republican ["The Republican Party's candidate"] 45% to 45%. For comparison purposes, Gallup's Lydia Saad writes, "In February 2003, the point in [pro-life President George W. Bush's presidency comparable to Obama's presidency today, Bush beat a generic Democrat among registered voters by 47% to 39%." Saad examines the components of the coalition that elected Obama in 2008. Obama continues to hold a huge advantage among non-white voters (63% to 26%). And women are 5% more likely to say they'd vote for Obama than are men (47% to 42%)--slightly diminished from the 7% advantage in 2008. However, the euphoria--at least at this moment in time--among younger voters has dissipated. "Gallup's 2008 pre-election poll found 63% of registered voters aged 18 to 34 choosing Obama, while 33% backed his Republican rival, John McCain," Saad writes. "In addition, 53% of 35- to 54-year-old voters and 48% of those 55 and older supported Obama in that same poll." However, "By contrast, today a bare majority of the 18- to 34-year-old group, 51%, and 43% of those 35 to 54 say they would vote to re-elect Obama." |
