Presidential Contests Still Unclear After Super Tuesday

The use of sports metaphors is an addiction for political reporters, and understandably so. They are vivid, widely understood, and are useful for simplifying complex developments.

So, it is true that among Democrats, there was no "knockout" on Super Tuesday. Tuesday's results were more like a split decision on a day that featured the most nominating contests ever held on a single day.

Pro-abortion Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama each claimed momentum and bragging rights. Obama won 13 states and Clinton 9. The difference is, of course, that Clinton prevailed in electoral behemoths such and New York and California.

But Democrats apportion delegates in a very complex manner, which cuts both ways. On the one hand, candidate "A" can win 48% of the vote and, were it a winner take all situation, candidate "B" would receive all the delegates. But because the delegates are apportioned, candidate "A" will do well.

On the other hand because there are other wrinkles too complex to go into here, a candidate can win the popular vote overwhelmingly yet not have this reflected in delegate totals.

As I write these remarks, according to Realclearpolitics.com, Clinton has 900 delegates, Obama 824. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination. But illustrating how close the race is and how complicated the Democratic formula, NBC News has their positions reversed: somewhere between 840 and 849 delegates for Obama versus 829-838 for Clinton.

Clinton can claim that, for the moment, she blunted the Obama surge. Obama can argue he has the wind at his back and it's onward and upward to next week's primaries.

Results on the Republican side were far more intriguing. Sen. John McCain carried nine states, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won seven, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee finished first in five states.

The dominating factor, of course, is that Sen. McCain won large winner-take-all states such as New York, Missouri, and Illinois. As realclearpolitics.com pointed out this morning, McCain won six of the eight winner take all states, and, in the process gained 312 delegates.

But Missouri illustrates just how competitive the contest was and could easily remain. Sen. McCain narrowly carried the day with 32% of the vote while Gov. Huckabee was only one percentage point behind and Gov. Romney three. It was that close. (Obama carried Missouri by the same 1% margin on the Democratic side.)

In addition to McCain's success, which (given the latest polls) was not unexpected, the big surprise of the night was clearly Huckabee. Written off by the national press (he had not won a state since he carried Iowa), Huckabee was the winner in five states: Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia.

As of this morning, McCain has 613 delegates, Romney 269, Huckabee 190, and Congressman Ron Paul 14, according to the New York Times.

Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia hold their primaries on February 12. On March 4, delegate-rich Texas and Ohio hold theirs.