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GOP Enjoys Historically
High Ten Point Advantage in Generic Ballot
Part One of Three By Dave Andrusko Editor's note. Please send your thoughts and comments to daveandrusko@gmail.com. My brother, who follows politics closely, emailed me this morning and observed, "A number of Democrat candidates are openly spouting conservative ideals on the campaign trail. Wonder if voters will fall for that one again?"
Judging by yesterday's Gallup Poll results--"GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot: Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting"--Democrats better hope so. Gallup's results, it can fairly be said, could never be accused of being skewed in the direction of Republicans. Which is why an historic Republican advantage sent shockwaves through the blogosphere. This may sound like inside baseball, but it's not, so please stay with me. The fate of ObamaCare--and much more--could well be in the cards come November 2. The Republicans lead the Democrats 51%-41% on the "generic ballot." In English that means the respondent is asked something along the lines of, "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district?" There are at least four reasons the results are actually far worse--beyond the powerful fact that this is double the largest advantage Republicans have enjoyed since 1942! · The pool was registered voters. "If history holds, this Republican advantage will increase once Gallup and other pollsters switch to measuring likely voters from registered to vote," according to the Washington Post's Jon Cohen. "[R]egistered Republicans are often more likely to vote than those who are signed up as Democrats." · It's part of an ongoing pattern. "The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points [at various times] this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942," Gallup's Frank Newport writes. · "Republicans are now twice as likely as Democrats to be 'very' enthusiastic about voting," according to Newport. If the numbers were 10% and 5%, it would be no big deal. But the figures are 50% to 25%! This is also "the largest such advantage of the year." · Finally, "Gallup's generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost," Newport concludes. That is true, of course, only if supporters are busy working on behalf of their candidates. |
