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Some Caution…and Some
Encouragement Part Three of Three By Dave Andrusko
The caveat is, like many of you, I have watched politics for decades and matters can change overnight. And it's not just that electoral fortunes can turn on a dime. Participants can be lulled into a false sense of security by opponents lamenting their bad fortunes. Take for example--one of many examples that could be cited--a piece that ran in today's Politico headlined, "Democrats privately fear House prospects worsening." As any good story should, the nub is in the first paragraph: "Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day." The story has a few caveats, but the mega-point is that certain Democratic seats are endangered that no one could have anticipated being in peril and that many Democrats are running away from pro-abortion President Obama and pro-abortion House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a centrist country, it DOES make sense to put space between yourself and two people who are far, far outside the mainstream. But…. While it is true that Republicans are twice as enthusiastic as Democrats are right now, it's August 26, not October 26. People are people, with lives outside of politics, and what is seemingly rock-solid today can be washed away by everyday concerns. While it's true that pro-life Republicans are doing well, it is also true they are running against incumbents who enjoy enormous advantages because they've wielded power and patronage for decades. It'll be tough-sledding, the closer it gets to November 2. And while it's true that President Obama seems to be unable to get his foot out of his mouth, Democrats may have some success in convincing voters that they are as opposed to many of Obama's policies as the electorate is--even when they've voted for them! The point is an obvious one: you can't extrapolate from here to there. You can only WORK from here to there. Let me conclude with a word of encouragement. Earlier today a friend raised a consideration that another friend had brought up a few weeks ago. He cited a CNN/Opinion Research poll from earlier this month. People were asked "How important will each of the following be to your vote for Congress this year?" If you combine those people who said that abortion is extremely important (23%) or very important (27%) to them, it totals up to 50%! Seven months ago (he pointed out to me) the figure was only 41%. This is not to say abortion will trump the economy. It IS to say that this figure has jumped by 9% and is (to pick a date) 13% higher than it was in January 2003. So what? Disproportionately those for whom abortion really matters--year in and year out--are pro-life. Please send your comments on Today's News & Views and National Right to Life News Today to daveandrusko@gmail.com. If you like, join those who are following me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/daveha. |
If
there is any truism that I subscribe to, it is the most overused
but nonetheless time-tested cliché in politics: the only "poll"
that counts is the one on election day. I mention that because
at this particular juncture in time, the tides seem to be moving
in the direction of pro-life candidates.