August 10, 2010

By Dave Andrusko

Good evening, Part Two of TN&V today reflects on how the danger of rationing in ObamaCare is undeniable, a conclusion amplified in Part Three. Over at National Right to Life News Today (www.nationalrighttolifenews.org), you'll learn how easy it is to donate to the NRL Trust Fund through the CFC; what a great inspiration pro-life camps are; and how the Knights of Columbus continue in its pro-life ways. Please send all of your comments to daveandrusko@gmail.com. If you like, join those who are now following me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/daveha.

It's the kind of story you have to read at least twice to figure out what conclusion (if any) it's reaching. The headline is "Crossroads poll: Dem Senate in peril," which would suggest (duh) that the Democrats' current 59-41 margin in the Senate is in trouble come this November.

About two-thirds of the way in, the article (appearing in Politico and written by Alexander Burns) starts to qualify that prognosis. Small sample size, Republicans would have to run the table, etc. suggests that "the poll doesn't mean Democrats are likely to lose the Senate – it doesn't even mean definitively that the Senate is in play."

So, much ado about nothing? Actually, no. There are very suggestive results embedded in the survey of voter sentiment "in 13 of the states with the country's most competitive Senate races."

Aside from the individual results, which were very favorable to most Republican senatorial candidates, more globally…

• "Pollster Glen Bolger ran the survey, modeling it on an NPR-sponsored poll that Public Opinion Strategies conducted in June with the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner," Burns writes. "That poll found that in the 70 most competitive House districts, voters leaned to Republican candidates by eight points, 49 percent to 41 percent."
  
  * "You've got independents voting Republican, two to one, just like McDonnell, Brown and Christie had," Bolger said, referring to the 2009 victories of Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and the 2010 special election win of Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown. "You have the high-interest voters much more supportive of Republicans than the overall electorate, even."

• The intensity factor. On a one to ten scale, Republicans were overwhelmingly more likely than were Democrats to rate themselves as an eight or higher – 52 percent to 36 percent. Perhaps more importantly, "Independents are breaking for the GOP by a similar, 22-point margin, 47 percent to 25 percent, and just 21 percent of them say the country is on the right track," Burns writes.

• Just one more. Although voters were still more likely to blame President Bush for the recession than President Obama, nonetheless respondents were still more likely to respond to a generic Republican pitch (52 % to 44%) over the generic Democratic pitch.

Worth noting is that a new Harris poll "shows that Americans' pessimism toward Washington remains high, as 70 percent believe political leaders in the nation's capital are 'out of touch,'" writes Andy Barr. "The nationwide poll of 1,066 adults found that across the board, most believe officials in Washington predominantly act in a way that benefits themselves rather that the country as a whole."

You can cut this a dozen different ways, but in the final analysis this voter alienation can not be good news for Democrats who control both branches of Congress and the Presidency.

In light of all this it is no accident that "With the House and Senate adjourned until after Labor Day, the White House and congressional Democratic leaders have coordinated their summertime message and strategy in part to avoid the imbroglio that marked last year's August recess, which laid bare the political risks of the healthcare debate that was underway," the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday.

What "message"? Blame Bush, warn of Republican control.

A more interesting question is what is NOT part of the message: anything about healthcare which Democrats insist is part of their "hard-earned" legislative "accomplishments."

Part Two
Part Three