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A New Look at Abortion
Statistics – Part One By Gunter N. Franz, Ph.D. During the 2004 presidential election campaign, letters to the editor appeared in many newspapers with a curious assertion: "According to government data" or "statistics from the federal CDC" (Centers for Disease Control), the number of abortions had dropped by 36% during the Clinton presidency. This was proof, these writers claimed, that the Democrat Bill Clinton had been the most pro-life president since Roe v. Wade. And therefore people should vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, John Kerry, in the 2004 election. Of course, no informed (and honest) person could seriously claim that President Bill Clinton was more pro-life than President Ronald Reagan or Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. But if one looked at the data from the CDC with regard to the total number of abortions per year, the reported numbers did, indeed, drop by 35.5% (rounded to 36%) for the eight Clinton years, 1993-2000. The problem with the CDC numbers is two-fold: (1) Contrary to a widespread assumption, the CDC has no legal power to compel accurate reporting by the abortion industry. While government statistics in many areas (such as the "vital statistics" on births and deaths) tend to be quite accurate, they are, in fact, very inaccurate with regard to abortion. The CDC collects (often fragmentary) abortion statistics mostly from state and municipal health departments--if they are willing to provide them. Fortunately there are statistics that are much more accurate than the CDC's, as shown below. (2) The CDC reported a totally fictitious "drop" in the number of abortions for 1995, when four states--among them the nation's largest, California--stopped reporting abortion data to the CDC. The CDC correctly identified this "drop" (from 1,267,415 in 1994 to 908,243 in 1995) as an artifact of the data collection method. Pro-abortionists carelessly (or deliberately) overlooked the technical "details" to score dishonest points during the election campaign of 2004. The CDC has tabulated abortions since 1970 (some states legalized abortion before 1973's Roe v. Wade). The figure below demonstrates the problem with CDC data.
Much more accurate abortion statistics are collected by the Guttmacher Institute (previously affiliated with Planned Parenthood as the Alan Guttmacher Institute--AGI). The Guttmacher Institute gets its data directly from abortion providers. AGI abortion numbers have always been higher than CDC abortion numbers: by 21% in 1975, by 20% in 1985, by 54% in 1995 (when four states stopped reporting to the CDC), and by 47% in 2005. The CDC data on yearly abortion numbers are so inaccurate that they are of little use. The difference between AGI and CDC abortion data is illustrated by the figure below. As the figure shows, even with regard to "trends," rather than absolute numbers, the CDC data are much more erratic than the AGI data.
The figure above shows (if we rely on the more accurate AGI data) that the number of abortions rose steeply through the 1970s, stayed essentially flat for ten years after 1980, and then began a steady decline after a peak in 1990: in 2005 there were only about as many abortions as in 1976. The next figure shows an intriguing thing: While the number of women of child-bearing age (15-44 years) rose steadily, the yearly number of abortions stayed nearly flat during the 1980s. Obviously, as time went on, abortion became less and less "popular" among women.
From the yearly number of abortions and the number of women of child-bearing age, statisticians can calculate the abortion statistic that best describes women's behavior with regard to abortion, the so-called abortion rate, the number of abortion per 1,000 women of child-bearing age. Unlike opinion polls, the abortion rate actually measures what women do with regard to abortion, as opposed to what they think about it. The next figure shows the dramatic changes in the abortion rate over time.
The figure above shows why pro-lifers should be encouraged: clearly the pro-life message has taken hold. During the 1970s the abortion rate nearly doubled; but the steep rise came to abrupt halt in 1980, and after that the abortion rate steadily dropped--in fact, by 2005 (the last data) it had come down to the level of 1974! So while the number of women of child-bearing kept rising throughout the period under review, the abortion rate peaked back in 1980--ten years before the yearly number of abortions (on which most people focus) peaked. The anti-life apologists have tried to explain the substantial shift in the abortion rate either by pointing to the decreasing number of abortion clinics or by proposing a shift in contraceptive practices. As to the former, there are fewer abortionists now, but the abortion industry has merely undergone a consolidation towards large abortion enterprises, like Planned Parenthood. With regard to an increased use of contraceptives, the change in use would have had to have been rather abrupt and dramatic around 1980-81. A better explanation is that a turning point of a different kind was reached by 1980-81: The pro-life movement had reached "critical mass" in terms of numbers, organization, visibility, and action. Remember, this was the election year that made Ronald Reagan president. Large numbers of Protestant became politically active and joined the pro-life movement during that time. Either from personal experience or from the reports of friends, women had begun to understand that "abortion is a bad thing," as former NARAL president Kate Michelman once admitted. Add to that the persistent legislative activity of NRLC and its state affiliates (such as laws to ban partial-birth abortions). The debate about such legislation always refocuses the public's mind onto the fact that abortion is not an innocuous "choice," but kills a baby. Finally, the persistent drop in the abortion rate is also due to the wide-spread use of ultra-sound imaging during pregnancy--pregnant women see their baby, not just "fetal tissue." (This commentary is based in part on a workshop presented by Dr. Gunter Franz at the National Right to Life Convention on June 24, 2010, in Pittsburgh, PA. Other commentaries will follow in Today's News & Views) |
