By Dave Andrusko

I received a tongue-in-cheek email today from a reader who asked how was it that I had gone an entire two days without catching you up on the latest goings on as we approach the November 2 elections. Okay, let's catch up with my favorite way of summarizing massive amounts of information: bullet-points.

• THE most important numbers this week have come from Gallup. As Mark Hemingway points out. Gallup's generic ballot poll "has traditionally underestimated Republican support." (The generic ballot poll includes no candidates' names. It asks a question something along the lines of, "If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district?") The GOP is still ahead 46% to 43% among registered voters, but enjoys a humongous 13 percentage points among likely voters.

• It's actually worse than that for Democrats. "Under Gallup's traditional voter model, 56% of likely voters say they're inclined to vote for a Republican; 38% for a Democrat," writes USA Today's Susan Page--an 18% lead. It's only "If [a]slightly higher turnout is assumed" that the Republican advantage is 53%-40%.

• Part and parcel of these numbers is the now-famous enthusiasm gap. "Gallup has found Republicans, compared with Democrats, expressing higher levels of enthusiasm about voting and more thought given to the elections throughout 2010," write Gallup's Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad. "It follows that models in which voting is restricted to those most likely to vote would show Republicans doing disproportionately well."

• We've written a couple of times about early voting. It sounds incredible, but predictions are that 40% of those who will in the 2010 off-year elections will do so BEFORE November 2. Please go to http://www.nrlc.org/NewsToday/EarlyVotingJump.html so that you can make sure that pro-life people you know who might not be able to vote November 2 do so in advance.

• A reminder: We've written a great deal about ebbs and flows. For the most part the polling data has been largely flows with only an occasional ebb. But the numbers for pro-life candidates in so many parts of the country are so good there will inevitably be a partial, temporary retrenchment. Not just because that's the way elections always go, but also because outlets such as the Washington Post, the New York Times, POLITICO, and the like want you to think pro-life candidates are slipping. They aren't. The real question is whether some pro-life senatorial candidates--dismissed as having no chance to win--will continue to gain ground on their pro-abortion opponents. They will if their supporters work night and day for the next four weeks.

Please send your comments on Today's News & Views and National Right to Life News Today to daveandrusko@gmail.com. If you like, join those who are following me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/daveha.

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