September 22, 2010

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Is there a Similarity to 1994?

By Dave Andrusko

Running hither and yon but still time to squeeze in one more post today. George Santayana is credited with saying that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." But it's also true that in politics it's easy to get carried away with supposed parallels; in other words you can "learn" the wrong lessons from history.

That's why we have to be careful about too glibly drawing parallels between today and 1994 when Democrats in Clinton's first off-year elections were washed out of power. One useful source of data is Gallup.

On Monday Gallup ran "On the Role of Government, Parties' Ratings Look Like 1994: Americans more likely to see Republicans than Democrats representing their views and values." This analysis by Lydia Saad tells us two things.

First, when asked how well do the two parties "represent your attitude about the role of Government," Saad writes that "the Republican Party's image on the role of government has held fairly steady [since 2006] and, as a result, the GOP now leads [at 52%] on this dimension, similar to its position in October 1994." By contrast, the percentage for the Democrats "has dropped from 57% in October 2006 to 44% today."

Second, on the very important question of how well the parties represent the respondent's values, "Democrats have lost ground on this dimension in recent years while Republicans have maintained their ground or possibly gained a little ground, resulting in a distinct Republican advantage, 56% to 49%, again similar to the parties' 1994 standing."

In a word, Americans now see the GOP as representing their attitude on the role of government--at a time in which it is routine for people to tell pollsters and reporters that Obama and the congressional Democrats have "over-reached"--and as more representing their values.