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Is there a Similarity to 1994?
By Dave Andrusko
Running hither and yon but still
time to squeeze in one more post today. George Santayana is
credited with saying that "those who cannot remember the past
are condemned to repeat it." But it's also true that in politics
it's easy to get carried away with supposed parallels; in other
words you can "learn" the wrong lessons from history.
That's why we have to be careful
about too glibly drawing parallels between today and 1994 when
Democrats in Clinton's first off-year elections were washed out
of power. One useful source of data is Gallup.
On Monday Gallup ran "On the Role
of Government, Parties' Ratings Look Like 1994: Americans more
likely to see Republicans than Democrats representing their
views and values." This analysis by Lydia Saad tells us two
things.
First, when asked how well do the
two parties "represent your attitude about the role of
Government," Saad writes that "the Republican Party's image on
the role of government has held fairly steady [since 2006] and,
as a result, the GOP now leads [at 52%] on this dimension,
similar to its position in October 1994." By contrast, the
percentage for the Democrats "has dropped from 57% in October
2006 to 44% today."
Second, on the very important
question of how well the parties represent the respondent's
values, "Democrats have lost ground on this dimension in recent
years while Republicans have maintained their ground or possibly
gained a little ground, resulting in a distinct Republican
advantage, 56% to 49%, again similar to the parties' 1994
standing."
In a word, Americans now see the
GOP as representing their attitude on the role of government--at
a time in which it is routine for people to tell pollsters and
reporters that Obama and the congressional Democrats have
"over-reached"--and as more representing their values. |