http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/09/us/politics/09web-toner.html?ex=1179374400&en=e742b348bea71de3&ei=5070&emc=eta1

May 9, 2007
On the Record
The G.O.P., Abortion and 2008
By ROBIN TONER

            It is one of the enduring features of the modern Republican Party: Since the rise of Ronald Reagan and the empowerment of the social conservatives, the party has formally stood in firm opposition to the constitutional right to abortion and the Supreme Court decision that established it.

Yes, there have always been Republicans who broke with party orthodoxy on the issue, from New England moderates like Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine to pragmatists like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California. But the party’s platform, if anything, grew less pliant on abortion over the years. And the party invariably nominated presidential candidates who embraced – rather than challenged -- the full “pro-life” position. (Just as the Democrats did, on the “pro-choice” side.)

Now, with Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, one of the frontrunners for the Republican nomination, the question inevitably arises: Is the party moving on this issue, ready for more flexibility? Can a supporter of abortion rights, even one with caveats and qualifications, make it to the top of the Republican Party in 2008?

Mr. Giuliani’s position on abortion stood out in stark relief at last week’s debate, when he alone, among the ten candidates on the stage, offered an ambivalent response to the prospect of overturning Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision considered anathema by the anti-abortion movement.

”It would be O.K. to repeal,” Mr. Giuliani said. ”Or it would be O.K. also if a strict constructionist judge viewed it as a precedent, and I think a judge has to make that decision.” On his campaign web site, Mr. Giuliani seeks a middle path, saying he supports “reasonable restrictions on abortion” but adding, “ultimately, he believes that it is a decision between a woman, her doctor, her family and her God.”

In the past, such a position triggered a quick and determined pushback from the party’s social conservatives. Candidates lacking strong anti-abortion credentials, in fact, rarely made it to the top tier. Party moderates regularly made attempts to soften the Republican platform, and were just as regularly beaten back over the years.

The party’s abortion plank endured, standing today as a ringing endorsement that “the unborn child has a fundamental individual right to life which cannot be infringed,” and committing to appoint judges “who respect traditional family values and the sanctity of innocent human life.”

President Bush, early on, embraced that platform and has enjoyed close relations with the anti-abortion movement throughout his political career.

But in the aftermath of the 2006 midterm elections, with Mr. Bush’s ratings slumping and the old conservative coalition widely considered in serious distress, does this issue still have the same power in the Republican party? Maybe, some analysts suggest, Republicans are willing to bend on abortion to get a candidate – Mr. Giuliani – who is appealing on other grounds, like fighting terrorism.

Or maybe not. Andrew Kohut, the head of the Pew Research Center, said there is some evidence that many Republican voters still don’t know much about Mr. Giuliani’s position on the social issues. Pew recently asked Republicans which of the presidential candidates came closest to their views on abortion, and found that half said they simply did not know.

“This goes to the point that people aren’t focused on this yet,” Mr. Kohut said.

Phyllis Schlafly, who has been in the trenches of the anti-abortion movement for a very long time, said Mr. Giuliani’s standing in the polls is being dramatically over-interpreted.

“A lot of people just don’t know about his background,” she said. “New York is like another country to most of the rest of the country.” She added, “I don’t think Giuliani is acceptable to a majority of the Republican Party.”

            David O’Steen, executive director of the National Right to Life Committee, agreed.

“Can you read anything into this about the Republican Party? The vast majority of Republican members of Congress are pro-life,” he said. “Polls show the vast majority of Republican voters are pro-life. These are the same voters, the same party, the same party platform – and that won’t be helpful to Mr. Giuliani.”

Anti-abortion leaders say that, if anything, their movement is resurgent – with a round of recent victories in the courts and the state legislatures – and say they are confident it will exert its power in 2008, just as it has in every other presidential campaign for the past 30 years.

If Mr. Giuliani endures, in short, he will be bucking an awful lot of history.